Another “Cyclone Val” could be on the cards this season with the Meteorology Division reporting elevated cyclone activity for the Samoan region.In its communiqué called Samoa Tropical Cyclone Outlook 2014-2015 Season, the Division says there is more than a 40 per cent chance that a cyclone will develop.This fact was reiterated by the Division’s A.C.E.O, Mulipola Ausetalia Titimaea, who said it was going to be an active cyclone season.“There is a 41 per cent possibility chances of having a tropical cyclone in our region,” he said.He said the season would be similar to the one Samoa experienced with Tropical Cyclone Evan.“I say there is a possibility of a category 3 cyclone of 64 knots (118km/h winds) may come this way,” he said.“While there is a possibility of a category 4 or category 5, it is a very small chance.“However, there is always a chance that all categories can be reached, so we should be on alert.”Looking to the communiqué, the region it is taking into account for these predictions is a 400km radius around Samoa, and a cyclone does not have to make landfall to be recognised by the Division.“Analysis is based on a 400km radius from Samoa, so the cyclone can develop within this 400km area,” Mulipola said.“Any cyclone that comes within this area and doesn’t make landfall we recognise that as a cyclone.”Returning to its outlook, the Division - through the Samoa Climate Early Warning System (C.L.E.W.S.) – says the risk of a cyclone this season is no different from the 2012-2013 seasons.“Two or more named cyclones are predicted to interact with the Samoa islands during the season, from November 1 2014 to April 30 2015,” it reports.“The risk of tropical cyclones this season is no different to the cyclone season 2012- 2013, most recent, where Samoa interacted with Tropical Cyclone Evan and Tropical Cyclone Garry.”The Division says this outlook is based on statistical analysis of historical Tropical Cyclone (T.C.) events that have occurred in similar El Niño Southern Oscillation (E.S.N.O.) conditions.Mulipola said eight analogue seasons were used in this analysis.What he means by “analogue season” is that in the data collection the Division, working with several other weather bureaus, they have looked at eight cyclone seasons with similar conditions to what we are experiencing now – such as the El Niño effect and water surface temperatures – to make their predictions.“So we are not taking all the seasons,” he said.According to the communiqué, based on historical tropical cyclone data, for E.S.N.O. conditions such as this particular season, one or more storms expected to reach category 3 status with mean wind speeds of at least 64 knots or 118 km/h, that is wind speeds similar to Tropical Cyclone Evan.“At least one or more storms to reach category 4 status with mean wind speeds of at least 86 knots or 159 km/h (wind speeds similar to Tropical Val),” it reads.“While Category 5 strength T.C.s, winds greater than 106 knots or 196 km/h and similar to Tropical Ofa, have not been prominent for E.N.S.O. neutral seasons like the current one, this type of event is still possible.“Therefore, all communities should remain alert and prepared for severe events.”The Division says that past E.N.S.O. neutral seasons have seen T.C. tracks with increased sinuosity, or irregular or looping motions as in Tropical Cyclone Evan rather than a curvilinear trajectory, which means they have potential to impact a large area.“As with the majority of other years, the late T.C. season, February–April, is expected to be the most active time in the Southwest Pacific.“Samoa should remain vigilant in case conditions in the equatorial Pacific change during the T.C. season.”The Division reports that on average, Samoa experiences at least one to two T.C.s passing within 400km of Apia every year.“The maximum total number of cyclones to have passed 400km of Apia in any one season can be up to five,” the communiqué reads.“Analysis of the eight analogue seasons - 1978/79, 1979/80, 1980/81, 1986/87, 1990/91, 2001/02, 2009/10 and 2012/13 show an elevated risk of 41 per cent from typical cyclone season.”The Division says that conditions within the E.N.S.O.-neutral range are indicated by sea surface temperature anomalies across the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean, and the atmospheric circulation patterns that exist over French Polynesia and northern Australia.“There is an expectation amongst a number of international forecast centres of a weak El Niño developing in the coming months and this is supported by a few of the climate models,” it reports.“Weak El Niño usually brings warmer oceans, one of many ingredients required for cyclone genesis, closer to Samoa and near to the dateline, that is normally placed further west near Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu and New Caledonia “Warm sea surface temperatures are key ingredients for cyclone development but not sufficient until all other parameters and conditions are met.”As a result, significant damaging winds, waves and rainfall are possible from these systems, and their effects can be wide spread, the Division reports.“Waterspouts development is favourable during this time,” it says.“All communities should remain vigilant, alert and prepared. Concerned agencies and ministries must implement relevant measures to mitigate the potential impacts of these severe events.