Pago Pago, AMERICAN SAMOA — The NOAA National Weather Service predicts 0 to 2 Tropical Cyclones (TC) within 300 nautical miles of Tutuila hurricane season, which runs from November 2025 to April 2026.

In a statement, released by the NOAA, outlined that La Niña conditions are currently present and are expected to persist through December 2025, with a transition to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral likely in the latter half of the Tropical Cyclone (TC) season for American Samoa. 

Residents are reminded that it only takes one TC to cause significant damage to communities. Therefore, residents, visitors, and mariners are strongly encouraged to prepare ahead of the TC season. The peripheral effects from nearby TCs could produce hazardous and potentially life-threatening weather and sea conditions.

For the 2025-26 season, American Samoa anticipates below-normal to near-normal TC activity, influenced by the expected La Niña conditions. Typically, American Samoa encounters 1 to 2 TCs in an average year. 

“A single TC can devastate an entire community—even without a direct hit. Life-threatening weather and treacherous seas pose risks far beyond the storm’s center.” 

According to NOAA, tropical cyclones pose a triple threat of hazards to the territory, including destructive winds with powerful gusts that can damage homes, topple power lines, and uproot trees. Heavy, continuous rain can trigger flash floods, overflow streams, and flood low-lying areas—heightening the risk of landslides. Dangerous seas can endanger vessels (such as alia fishing boats), generate deadly rip currents, and cause storm surge inundation that can flood coastal roads and homes.

Residents, visitors, and mariners are strongly encouraged to prepare ahead of the TC season. 

“This outlook, covering 300 nautical miles from Tutuila, serves as a general guide to the anticipated overall TC activity across the territory and does not indicate how many systems will actually make landfall. “Nonetheless, the outlook provides a general idea of how many TCs could affect American Samoa with peripheral effects such as strong damaging winds, torrential rainfall, and/or storm surge inundation.” 

Furthermore, NOAA noted that predicting ENSO phases (El Niño, La Niña, or neutral) and their impact on South Pacific TC activity is challenging and improves as the season approaches. 

The same weather conditions can lead to different TC outcomes, such as several short storms or a few strong, long-lasting ones—it’s difficult to know for sure.

Models predicting factors such as sea surface temperatures, wind patterns, moisture, and air stability (especially during the peak hurricane months) come with some uncertainty. Short-term weather changes, which can't be predicted months in advance, may arise and influence TC activity for weeks or months. ENSO is a key tool for forecasting the position of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), where TCs often originate. Other factors, such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), also significantly influence seasonal activity.