Pago Pago, AMERICAN SAMOA — The territory experienced a persistent exodus of residents, coupled with a decline in new births in the first six months of this year, which shows a slowing growth rate in 2024 compared to the past five years.

Despite the favorable economic climate attracting foreign laborers, a significant trend persists with residents relocating in substantial numbers: 48,780 residents arrived while 50,895 departed, resulting in a net loss of 2,165 residents.

As of July 1, 2024, the local population is estimated at 53,616, reflecting an increase of 288 individuals compared to the 2023 estimate. This rise can be attributed to the economic resurgence following the COVID-19 pandemic, driving the demand for guest workers in sectors such as manufacturing, construction, and services.

Earlier this year, American Samoa received socioeconomic characteristics and cross- tabulation data from the 2020 Census. This information is accessible for download on the U.S. Census Bureau's website, census.gov, or at the Statistics and Analysis Division office of the Department of Commerce.

IMPACT OF LOW FERTILITY

American Samoa recorded merely 790 mid-year births and 426 deaths, resulting in a modest natural growth of 364 individuals. This demographic data highlights a concerning trend of low fertility rates in the region, necessitating immediate policy evaluation to understand its implications on the population.

Efforts aimed at population control target reducing the birth rate to the replacement level of two births per woman, known as the Total Fertility Rate (TER) of 2.1 per woman of childbearing age. Sustaining this rate ensures a population's self-renewal without expansion. However, a declining birth rate, falling below the 2.1 TFR threshold, raises apprehensions regarding the achievement or overshooting of the fertility replacement level.

The continuous decrease in fertility rates is anticipated to have far-reaching effects across various facets of community life, including health, education, economy, society, and the environment. While some impacts may initially appear beneficial, the long-term repercussions are expected to be predominantly adverse.

Notably, the Total Fertility Rate in American Samoa was 3.2 children per woman of childbearing age (15-44) in 2010, declining to 2.0 children by 2020 and maintaining this rate in 2021.