Pago Pago, AMERICAN SAMOA — The 2024 State of the Territory Comprehensive Report (TCR) offers insights into the big picture of the local economy in terms of its future. And, while the Lemanu & Talauega Administration focuses on healthcare as the most important aspect of the economy to improve and safeguard the lives of “our people”, the statistics present a snapshot of an economy that continues to rely on the government and the canneries to survive.

Samoa News points out that the administration does not present the stats as good or bad for the economy, instead they are presented ‘as is’.

The 2024 TCR lists, in the State of the Economy section, that economic indicators show a 1.8 percent growth in real gross domestic (GDP) in 2022, “rebounding from an 8% decline in 2021.” The rise is attributed “to heightened government spending and export activities,” it states.

The report states that the growth, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), was “offset by declines in personal consumption expenditures, private fixed investment, and private inventory investment.

“Imports also saw a decline during this period,” with personal consumption expenditures declining “primarily reflecting decreased spending on goods, such as motor vehicles and food.”

The declines are seen as happening due to “payments distributed to households through the Coronavirus Response and Relief Supplemental Appropriations (CRRSA) Act and the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) tapered off by 2022. These payments had supported consumer spending in 2021.”

In 2023, the report states that registered Business licenses declined, 3,548 in 2023 from 4,616 in 2022, with a total of business registration fees collected of around $526,000 — with business renewals bringing in the most at $456,680.

It shows a Top 10 list with Retail business activities leading at 412; followed by Food Establishments of 356, and Alcoholic/ Beer licenses and Landscaping/ Janitorial follow in the mid 200s. Sewing Shops are listed at #10 with 89 establishments.

For employment, the Top Ten of businesses by Employment as of Sept. 29, 2023 are StarKist Samoa at #1 with 2180; Paramount Builders at #2 with 128; #3 is American Industries with 119; BlueSky Communications is #4 with 101; and, others are businesses that employ below 100 workers, with Tool Shop at #10 with 56 employees. Total employees of the Top Ten is 2,968.

The government does not list itself as a top employer, as it’s not private sector. Current ASG employment numbers are estimated at 6,000 plus, making it the lead employer in the Territory.

The 2023 Mid-Year Population Estimate on Aug. 23, 2023 was 53,331. That's an increase of about 2,000 from the 2022 estimate. For perspective, the 2020 census for American Samoa was 49,710 people.

The rise in the current Mid-Year population estimate is, according to the data and information released by the Statistics & Analysis Division of the Commerce Department, in August 2023, mainly due to a substantial hike in net travels recorded, due to more visits of relatives and guests workers brought in for cannery/ domestic work. The population is 38% for those under 19 years old, with 62.7% in ages of 16 to 65.

According to the S&A Division of DOC, the new estimate was derived from the Balancing Equation Methodology; which used the published official count of the 2020 American Samoa Census five-year age distributions plus natural growth and net travelers. Natural growth is births minus deaths, while net travelers are all arrivals, less all departures.

Of note, “fertility continued to decline while more and more deaths were recorded, resulting in less natural growth of the resident population,” said DOC. It further indicated that there was “another net outward movement of the local residents.”

The DOC said the methodology is maintained by looking at population components, including higher mortality, low fertility, fewer births, continuous outmigration of residents, and new economic initiatives in bringing in cannery workers under the Guest Worker Permits program.

Samoa News points out that non-competitive federal grants allocate funds using a formula to calculate the award amount. Factors such as population count, census data, including the annual appropriation provided by Congress are considered.

Concerns in the Territory have focused on such awards being affected by the declining population count and this has led to some ASG officials asking for a ‘recount’ saying the 2020 count was flawed in that it missed a portion of the community, namely illegal aliens. The DOC further points to being unable to accurately account for “temporary” migrations — that is many spend months or years in the US or off-island, but still maintain American Samoa as their legal residence.

The US Census Bureau maintains the 2020 count was correctly done.

Another indicator of the state of the economy can be found in the Department of Human Social Services (DHSS) stats that show the department played a vital role in our local economy, by serving overall in 2023 42,000 adults and children, and infusing close to $131 Million in new money into the economy.

Keeping in mind the population count is 53,331, DHSS stats seem to indicate that about 79% of the Territory’s population received at one time or another financial help from the DHSS, whether through food coupons (ASNAP program) or the Child Care and Development funds (CCDF).

The ASNAP program and the Child Care and Development fund (CCDF) are the largest contributors.

The report states that the DHSS programs are also affected by the ongoing decline in American Samoa’s birth rates, which in turn affects the number of children DHSS can serve through its ASNAP, ASWIC and Child Care programs.

The rental market for low income housing continues to be a problem, according to the DHSS, with affordable rental spaces problematic. They provide up to $500 per month for housing, and also provide a temporary homeless shelter for those unable to find housing.

Currently, DHSS is experiencing a problem with a new shelter, formerly the Afio Mai II Apartment complex in Ottoville, it bought. Renovations and opening the new location has been delayed as a tenant of the complex has refused to vacate — even after the sale was complete. The issue is now in court and the new shelter is on hold into 2024, while DHSS through the Attorney General’s Office is tracking its progress.

The final area that many in the community consider murky is the monthly remittances or money transfers that many say is how the local monies are being ‘drained’ — or sent off island, not being spent in the local economy.

The Office of Financial Institutions (OFI) was established to among other issues, provide effective regulatory oversight, especially for institutions dealing with remittances — or money transmissions through Money Service Businesses (MSBS), i.e. Western Union.

OFI reports that the MSB Total Foreign Remittance for FY 2022 totaled around $36.6 Million but in FY 2023 dropped to about $34 Million. For US Remittance, MSB total for FY 2022 was $6.5 Million and in FY 2023 rose to around $8.15 Million. The TCR does not offer any explanation for the decrease in the foreign remittances and increase in the U.S. transfers, both around $2 Million.

OFI does not identify what specific MSB did the most business, whether or not the money transfers were received or sent, and what the reasons were for the remittances — payment of goods & services, for family use, etc.

It states only that it maintains “oversight to ensure practices, processing and procedures are operating in a safe and sound manner in accordance to Federal Reserve Bank (FRB), Conference of State Bank Supervisors (CSBS), Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council (FFIEC) guidelines.”

Samoa News will continue to review the 2024 TCR in upcoming issues.