Pago Pago, AMERICAN SAMOA — Commercial deep sea mining (DSM) in the Cook Islands and other pro-mining Pacific countries could begin as early as 2027, an Australian-based think tank predicts. However, the Cook Islands Seabed Minerals Authority (SBMA) maintains that exploration will continue until 2032.

According to the SBMA, the three exploration licenses issued to Moana Minerals Limited, a subsidiary of Ocean Minerals LLC, Cook Islands Cobalt Limited (CIC) and American Ocean Minerals Corporation (AOMC) will be up for renewal in 2027 and only exploration licences will be issued.

"The Cook Islands remain in an exploration and research phase. No commercial minerals harvesting has been approved or authorized under current exploration licenses," the SBMA has stated.

"Any future proposal to move beyond exploration would remain subject to Cook Islands legal and regulatory requirements, including environmental assessment, public consultation where required by law, and the relevant decision-making processes."

In an analysis released in late August, Lowy Institute researchers concluded that this was driven by the United States-China competition over critical minerals. The analysis stated that the Cook Islands possess the world's largest and richest sovereign resource of polymetallic nodules, which have become a focal point of the US-China geopolitical competition.

Last month, US Interior Secretary Doug Burgum told G20 energy ministers in Houston that deep sea mining permits for US territorial waters could arrive in the near future. He said his department would first auction rights in American waters and then review operating permits for those sites.

The US Commerce Department, separately, wants to license work in waters beyond any country's borders. Reuters named The Metals Company Inc (TMC) and privately held Impossible Metals as firms that have already sought mining permits.

Among companies identified is American Deep Sea Minerals. The company is looking to mine the seabed near Penrhyn.

However, this is not possible as the SBMA has regulatory authority regarding exploration and commercial extraction. SBMA also confirmed that no further exploration licenses had been issued apart from the current three.

"An exploration license does not give ownership of Cook Islands seabed mineral resources. An exploration license does not provide any automatic right to commercial minerals harvesting, and no company owns or controls any part of the Cook Islands Exclusive Economic Zone or Marae Moana through an exploration license," the SBMA has stated.

US Interior Secretary Burgum suggested otherwise at the G20 meeting.

"Those nodules that we just have to go out and vacuum up off the sea floor are filled with these critical minerals that we need [mainly nickel, copper, cobalt and manganese]," Burgum said.

"You'll be hearing more in the weeks and months ahead because there are some exciting developments."

The US does not want to lose the critical minerals race in the Pacific to China. As it is, China's position in critical mineral supply chains is one of dominance at both the extraction and processing stages. Analysis from the International Energy Agency (IEA) in 2025 found that China controls the largest share of refining capacity for 19 of the 20 minerals it tracks, with an average market share of around 70 per cent.

China's control of the industry extends beyond its borders. The Democratic Republic of Congo produces 74 per cent of the world's mined cobalt, but 80 per cent of global cobalt is processed through Chinese facilities. Indonesia supplies around two-thirds of the world's mined nickel, yet most of that production capacity is Chinese-financed. From mine to refined product, Beijing has built a position of structural advantage that leaves rivals dependent on Chinese supply chains for materials their economies and defence systems cannot function without.

Now the US is stationing a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) scientist in Rarotonga to work directly with the SBMA starting in November 2026. This announcement followed the US investment of $101 million into the port at Penrhyn.

Furthermore, the US has already proceeded to map the seabed in American Samoa in search of critical minerals.

FRACTURE WITHIN THE PACIFIC

The Lowy Institute warned that there are no guidelines set up to govern deep sea mining in the Pacific. It further warned that commercial mining could begin even before a consensus is reached within the region, especially among Pacific Forum members.

This conclusion was given despite the Seabed Minerals Act 2019, which establishes a clear legal framework for the exploration and potential development of seabed mineral resources, ensuring that all activities are carried out responsibly, sustainably, and with transparency.

Under the Act, the SBMA is mandated to regulate and oversee all seabed minerals activities. SBMA's role includes issuing licences, monitoring compliance, managing data and reporting, engaging with stakeholders, and ensuring environmental safeguards are upheld.

"The governance architecture that should precede them does not exist. The great power contest that is driving the industry forward will not slow to accommodate the concerns of small island states. These are the conditions under which Pacific nations are being asked to make decisions with permanent consequences," the report concluded.

"The fracture running through the Pacific on DSM is not a failure of Pacific solidarity; it is a predictable consequence of asking nations to treat a contested resource question as though it were a shared environmental one.

"For pro-mining nations, the financial promise is seductive. For the anti-mining bloc, the environmental and cultural case for resistance is no less compelling. The problem is not that Pacific nations disagree; it is that they are being forced to negotiate individually against parties with vastly more resources, information, and legal capacity - and that the international framework designed to protect them has stalled."

The Lowy Institute has called on the Australian government to invest in Pacific regulatory capacity and champion a regional governance framework via the Forum that does not require Australia to take sides on whether DSM should proceed.

"It requires Australia to insist that any operations that proceed abide by rules that protect the nations most exposed to the consequences. In doing so, Australia would help safeguard the conditions in which Pacific solidarity, and the regional stability it underpins, can endure," concluded the research.

(Source: RNZ Pacific)