Likelihood of tropical cyclone activity high with strong El Niño influencing Pacific weather patterns
Pago Pago, AMERICAN SAMOA — The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued a key notice about the upcoming 2026–2027 Hurricane Season for American Samoa, stressing the need for preparedness given current weather conditions.
The official hurricane season for American Samoa runs from November 1, 2026, through April 30, 2027.
However, experts warn that a strong El Niño is likely to influence weather patterns, increasing both the risk of tropical cyclone formation and the overall number of cyclones. El Niño typically raises sea surface temperatures and creates favorable wind conditions, together creating an environment conducive to tropical cyclone development. As a result, residents should be aware that cyclone activity may occur outside the designated hurricane season.
Even before the official start of the hurricane season, tropical cyclone activity is already being observed across parts of the South Pacific. This serves as a stark reminder that tropical cyclones are not confined to the usual seasonal patterns. Given the elevated risks that accompany El Niño conditions, individuals and families should begin preparing immediately rather than waiting until a storm is imminent.
Assess the specific risks associated with tropical cyclones in your area. Consider your home's geography — whether it's in a low-lying coastal region, near rivers or streams, or in an area known for flooding and landslides.
Familiarize yourself with the potential impacts of tropical cyclones, including damaging winds that can uproot trees and damage structures, heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding, dangerous surf conditions affecting coastal areas, and the risk of coastal inundation or storm surges.
Developing a comprehensive evacuation plan is vital.
Identify safe shelter locations, such as community centers or designated emergency shelters; establish meeting points for family members in case of separation; and outline the safest routes to higher ground, avoiding roads that may flood. Discuss and document what actions to take before, during, and after a tropical cyclone. Designate alternative communication methods for your family — such as meeting at a neighbor's house or using walkie-talkies — should phone and internet services become disrupted. Regularly review your plan with all family members to ensure everyone knows their role and understands the procedures.
Thoroughly inspect your home for needed repairs to the roof, windows, doors, and structural supports.
Address these issues promptly to avoid further damage during a storm. Trim back overhanging branches that could become dangerous in strong winds, and clear gutters and drainage systems of debris to prevent water backup. Secure loose outdoor items like patio furniture, garden decorations, and other objects that wind could easily blow away. Bring these items indoors or anchor them down as needed.
Also prepare a well-stocked emergency supply kit designed to last your family at least 14 days.
This kit should include at least one gallon of water per person per day, non-perishable food such as canned goods and dry snacks, essential medications, and personal hygiene products. Include emergency equipment such as flashlights with extra batteries, a first aid kit stocked with essential supplies, portable phone chargers, a battery-powered or hand-crank radio for weather updates, and important documents (like identification and insurance information) stored in waterproof containers. Don’t forget supplies for infants (formula and diapers), elderly family members (mobility aids), and pets (food and medications).
Stay vigilant by regularly checking weather forecasts, alerts, watches, and warnings issued by the National Weather Service in Pago Pago, as well as official notifications from local authorities.
Follow communications from the American Samoa Department of Homeland Security (ASDHS/TEMCO) and avoid unverified social media information, which may not be accurate or reliable. Establish a routine for checking updates, especially as a storm approaches, and make sure your family knows how to access this information. Remember, thorough preparation is key to resilience and safety during tropical cyclones.
For the latest weather updates, visit weather.gov/ppg or follow on social media @nwspagopago.

